Real?Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty*

GDP is measured with error. But data uncertainty rarely communicated quantitatively in real-time. An exception are the fan charts for historical growth published by Bank of England. To assess how well understood is, we first evaluate accuracy and compare them models past revisions data. Secondly, to gauge perceptions across a wider set experts, conduct new online survey. Our results call greater communication uncertainties, anchor dispersed expectations uncertainty. they suggest that transitory uncertainties can be adequately quantified, even without judgement, using